Hanya di Kota Malang, Potensi Pertarungan 4 Wali Kota di Pilkada 2024

By: Dito Arief Nurakhmadi, S.AP, M.AP

Registration of Regional Head Candidates is still on August 27, but seeing the fluid dynamics of politics in Malang City and the attitude of waiting for each other between candidates and Political Parties, makes the public wonder. From the many pictures of Regional Head Candidates displayed on the streets and public areas, why haven't the Party's recommendations come down to those names? Likewise, from the names that registered with a number of Political Parties, why then did many of them just disappear without any further news being heard.

Entering July 2024, the crescent moon seems to be starting to be visible, along with Abah Anton's return from the holy land, supporters and political parties that are touting him to run again are starting to emphasize the clarity of Abah Anton's legal status regarding the pause for corruption convicts, whether Abah Anton can really run or not in the upcoming 2024 Pilkada. Not only his supporters I think, this certainty is also awaited by the candidates and political parties who are preparing to be his challengers.

Kabar Pj Wali Kota Wahyu Hidayat yang akan diusung oleh Partai Gerindra juga menjadi perkembangan menarik, bahkan Baner berwajah Pj Wali kota dengan Tagline Pak Mbois nya juga sudah massif menghiasi Kota Malang di awal Juli ini. Sebagai birokrat Asli Malang, Wahyu Hidayat belakangan menjadi Rising Star dengan kepemimpinan yang energik selama 1 tahun menjabat Pj Wali kota Malang. Tak heran namanya menjadi opsi menarik lain bagi beberapa Partai Politik bilamana Abah Anton gagal mendapatkan “Tafsir MK” terkait status hukumnya untuk bisa melaju di Pilkada Kota Malang 2024. 

Bila melihat hasil survei, Partai Politik yang memiliki kader jagoannya realistis hanya berani memasang target N2 (Calon Wakil Wali kota) untuk mendampingi Abah Anton maupun Wahyu Hidayat.  Maka nama – nama seperti Kresna Dewanata Phrosakh, Ahmad Fuad Rahman, Ahmad Wanedi, Amithya, Sofyan Edi Jarwoko, hingga Ardantya Syahreza yang kemudian logis masuk dalam bursa pendamping bagi Abah Anton maupun Wahyu Hidayat.

Publik juga menanti keberanian Mantan Wali kota Sutiaji untuk maju kembali di periode keduanya. Wali kota Sutiaji ini memang agak lain, ketika banyak kepala daerah kebanyakan ingin melanjutkan periode keduanya, kali ini Sutiaji tampak kurang percaya diri untuk bertarung dengan Abah Anton di Pilkada 2024. Isu maju sebagai Calon Gubernur Jawa Timur tempo hari saya kira hanya Exit Door saja mengingat hasil survei dan kepuasan Masyarakat Kota Malang terhadap dirinya pun juga tidak menggembirakan. Namun tentunya potensi Sutiaji untuk maju kembali tetap terbuka, dengan dinamika politik yang masih cair dan belum ada satupun Partai Politik yang menurunkan rekom. Apalagi kalau pada akhirnya Abah Anton terganjal tidak dapat melaju, penulis meyakini Sutiaji akan menjadi salah satu orang yang bergembira mendengar kabar tersebut.

Partai pemenang Pemilu di Kota Malang, PDIP sebagai satu-satunya Partai Politik yang bisa mengusung sendiri pasangan calon di Pilkada Kota Malang saya kira bisa menjadi pembeda.   Bukan tidak mungkin tiba – tiba PDIP menurunkan Mantan Wali Kota Batu Dewanti Rumpoko untuk bertarung di Pilkada Kota Malang. Meskipun saat ini Dewanti telah terpilih sebagai anggota DPRD Jawa Timur pada Pemilu Legislatif 2024 kemarin, penugasan Partai untuk memerintahkannya bertarung di Kota Malang  yang notabene merupakan tempatnya meniti karier politik sangat terbuka. Kesediaan untuk menerima perintah Partai termasuk melepas jabatan anggota DPRD Provinsi Jatim terpilih yang sudah siap diemban tentunya merupakan pengorbanan yang luar biasa bila itu terjadi.

Another possible surprise is if the Golkar Party dares to nominate its best cadre Sofyan Edi Jarwoko as a candidate for Mayor of Malang. The former Deputy Mayor of Malang for the 2018-2023 period has strong potential to advance as Mayor, especially as the Chairperson of the Party that has 6 seats in the Malang City DPRD, only needing to form a coalition with one of the Parties to complete a minimum of 9 seats to be able to nominate a candidate pair in the 2024 Malang City Pilkada. However, another strategic step could also be to re-target the N2 position, to pair up with the two strongest candidates Abah Anton or Wahyu Hidayat, or even return to CLBK by joining forces again with Sutiaji in the 2024 Pilkada.

Revisiting the survey report of the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI Lembaga) released in early June 2024 with 400 respondents and a margin of error of +- 5%, Mochamad Anton's electability is indeed far superior, leaving other names with an electability level of 41.2%, even the second, third and fourth ranks below Abah Anton are far apart up to 30% below him. The popularity factor is very important, Mohammad Anton's high electability is accompanied by a popularity level of 85.3%. Meanwhile, Sutiaji, whose popularity is also high at 81.8%, is not directly proportional to his electoral level which is only below 10%.

In addition to Dewanti Rumpoko whose recognition has reached above 60%, other potential names such as Wahyu Hidayat and Sofyan Edi Jarwoko still have a level of recognition that is not yet optimal at below 40%, so that the three names still have a great opportunity to increase their electability by increasing their recognition first to the maximum. Moreover, there is still approximately 2 months before registration, and 3 months of campaign period to maximize electoral work to catch up and achieve victory.

It will be a Battle of Revenge as well as a Battle of The Mayors if it is true that the recommendation of the supporting party goes down to those names. Maybe it only happens in Malang City, the Pilkada is participated by 3-4 former mayors, namely Mohammad Anton, Mayor of Malang 2013-2018, Sutiaji, Mayor of Malang 2018-2023, Dewanti Rumpoko, Mayor of Batu 2017-2022 and Wahyu Hidayat, Acting Mayor of Malang 2023-2024, and it is possible that Sofyan Edi Jarwoko, Deputy Mayor of Malang 2018-2023 will be added.

Interesting to wait for…

The author is: Founder of Semart Politica & Doctoral Candidate, UB Postgraduate School